植物检疫

松大盾象严重危害松属、云杉属、落叶松属等针叶树，已在中国青海省造成云杉、油松和樟子松大量死亡。为明确该害虫在中国的适生区分布及风险程度，本研究基于已知的全球分布数据和19个历史气候条件下的生物气候变量因子，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对其在中国的适生区进行预测，并对松大盾象在中国的危险性作出综合评价。结果显示，历史气候条件下，松大盾象在中国的适生区主要分布于西北及西南地区，其中高度适生区主要分布于甘肃南部、陕西南部、四川中部、贵州西北部、云南北部和西藏东南部，中低度适生区主要分布于四川、重庆、贵州、云南、福建、浙江、湖北西部、西藏东南部以及甘肃南部。根据MaxEnt模型预测及风险评估结果，其在中国的风险值为2.21，属于高度危险。本研究为科学指导检疫与防控策略提供重要参考。

Magdalis duplicata is a destructive pest of coniferous trees,causing severe damage to species in the genera Pinus,Picea,and Larix. It has already caused extensive mortality of Picea asperata,Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Qinghai Province,China. In order to clarify the distribution of suitable habitats and assess the risk level of this pest in China,this study utilized known global distribution data and 19 bioclimatic variables under historical climate conditions. Using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,the potential suitable areas for the pest in China were predicted,and a comprehensive risk assessment of M. duplicata in China was conducted. The results showed that under historical climate conditions,the suitable habitats of M. duplicata in China are primarily located in the northwestern and southwestern regions. Areas of high suitability are mainly distributed in southern Gansu,southern Shanxi,central Sichuan,northwestern Guizhou,northern Yunnan,and southeastern Tibet. Areas of moderate to low suitability are primarily found in Sichuan,Chongqing,Guizhou,Yunnan,Fujian,Zhejiang,western Hubei,southeastern Tibet,and southern Gansu. According to the MaxEnt model prediction and risk assessment results,its risk value in China is 2.21,indicating a high level of risk. It provides an important reference for scientifically guiding quarantine and prevention strategies.