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为了探究外来生物入侵数量变化与各种经济因素的关系,本研究基于2001、2005、2009、2013和2017年5个时间节点中国27个省区外来生物密度、以及贸易进口总额、旅游人数、铁路里程、公路里程、内河航道里程等经济因素,采用多元线性回归模型分析了影响外来物种入侵的主要经济因素,并定量分析各因素的影响程度。结果表明外来物种的入侵与经济发展水平密切相关,在不同时间节点影响入侵生物密度的经济因素不同:5个时间节点中铁路里程对外来物种密度均有影响;旅游人数对外来物种密度的影响都较大,2001年、2005年、2009年和2017游旅人数是影响外来物种密度的重要因素,人们无意或有意携带的外来物种随着旅途扩散到其他地方;2013年贸易进口总额所占比重较大,回归分析表明进口贸易与外来物种的入侵密切相关。最后,基于区域可持续发展的理念与战略,提出防控外来物种的建议。
Abstract：To explore the relationship between changes in the number of alien biological invasions and various economic factors,this study selected the invasion biological density of 27 provinces and autonomous regions under the five time nodes from 2001 to 2017 as the dependent variables,and total trade imports,number of tourists,railway mileage,highway mileage and inland waterway mileage were used as independent variables for multiple regression analysis. It was concluded that the length of railway had an effect on the density of alien species in the five time nodes. The number of tourists in2001,2005,2009 and 2017 all had a greater impact on the density of alien species,indicating that human activities have a great impact on the invasion of alien species. The invasion of alien species was closely related to the level of economic development,and the economic factors that affect the density of invasive species were different at different time nodes. The large proportion of total trade imports in 2013 showed that import trade was closely related to the invasion of alien species. The alien species that people carry unintentionally or intentionally spread to all parts of the country not only showed that country's awareness of the prevention and control of foreign biological invasion was still insufficient,but also showed that there were loopholes in the supervision system of relevant departments. At last,some suggestions on the prevention and control of alien invasive species were put forward based on the concept and strategy of regional sustainable development.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19662/j.cnki.issn1005-2755.2021.04.002
中图分类号:Q16
引用信息:
[1]陈凤新,蒙彦良,杜杰,等.中国外来生物入侵与社会经济因素多元回归分析[J].植物检疫,2021,35(04):8-14.DOI:10.19662/j.cnki.issn1005-2755.2021.04.002.
基金信息:
2020年河北省科技厅软科学项目（20557676D）