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木瓜秀粉蚧(Paracoccus marginatus Williams and Granara de Willink)是一种重要的果蔬及园林害虫,现已传播至60个国家/地区。通过文献收集和我国田间调查,收集分布点数据235个,并采用MaxEnt模型进行当前及未来气候条件下的适生性预测。结果表明:在当前气候条件下,全球的适生区集中于热带和亚热带地区,包括巴西、澳大利亚等14个未发生区;我国的高度适生区为海南,广东、广西大部分地区,台湾、福建部分地区,云南、西藏零星地区;在2050年的RCP26和RCP85两种气候情景下,全球的适生区北界均向北移动,在我国适生区的北界扩大至江苏、山东。建议我国将其列为检疫性有害生物,加强预防和控制工作。
Abstract：The papaya mealybug,Paracoccus marginatus Williams and Granara de Willink,is an important invasive insect for fruits,vegetables and horticultural plants. It has been spread to 60 countries/regions. A total of 235 district-level P. marginatus occurrence records,collected through literature and field surveys in China,were used in the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS to predict its potential geographical distribution in the world under current and future climate conditions. The result shows that the potential suitable distribution areas under the current climate conditions were mainly in tropical and subtropical regions in the world,including another 14 countries(Brazil,Australia,et al.) without the papaya mealybugs. The suitable zone within China includes Hainan;most part of Guangdong and Guangxi;part of Taiwan and Fujian;sporadic regions of Yunnan and Xizang;and under the climate scenarios of RCP26 and RCP85 in2050,the northern boundaries of the global suitable zones moved northward,and in China the northern boundaries expanded to Jiangsu and Shandong Province,respectively. It should be suggested as a kind of quarantine pest and subject to strengthen prevention control.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19662/j.cnki.issn1005-2755.2019.05.007
中图分类号:S41-30
引用信息:
[1]宋子骄,秦誉嘉,马福欢等.基于MaxEnt的木瓜秀粉蚧适生性分析[J].植物检疫,2019,33(05):73-78.DOI:10.19662/j.cnki.issn1005-2755.2019.05.007.
基金信息:
国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD08B02);; 国家市场监督管理总局食品储运生物污染控制专项(2019);; 联合国工发组织援助项目(C/Ⅲ/S/16/035)